USA Today Examines Future Of Medicare, Social Security Benefits For Aging Baby Boomers Amid 'Projected Long-Term Explosion Of Health Care Costs
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that combined spending on Medicare and Medicaid likely will account for 19% of gross domestic product by 2082, compared with 4% today, without changes to the programs. According to the American Academy of Actuaries, elimination of the expected Medicare deficit over 75 years would require a 122% increase in the Medicare payroll tax, a 51% reduction in benefits or a combination of the two.
CBO Director Peter Orszag said of the long-term financial problems with Medicare, "I'm an optimist," adding, "There are opportunities to remove costs from the system without harming health care," such as targeted reimbursements for the most effective treatments. Changes in "how Medicare pays health providers could reduce spending" and "prompt other changes in the broader health care system," and "steps by Congress to reform the broader health care system by moving toward government-mandated insurance or greater use of tax incentives could also affect Medicare," USA Today reports.
Tricia Neuman, a Kaiser Family Foundation vice president and director of the Medicare Policy Project at the foundation, said, "There are wide-ranging options," adding, "There are changes that could directly affect beneficiaries ... providers, doctors, hospitals; there are changes that could affect insurers. And there are more structural changes" that could affect health care for all U.S. residents. In addition, she said, "Changes are on the long-term horizon, but it doesn't appear that major changes are imminent in the short term," adding, "The good news for people who are approaching Medicare age is that there is now a drug benefit" (Kirchhoff, USA Today, 1/17).
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